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JC 2008-06-26 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeK (Post 120168)
This is exactly what has been happening for the last few decades.

Americans demand cheap goods from other countries, which are paid for in US dollars. US dollars are valuable because of this vast trade, so other countries invest in dollars by buying up american debt. The trade keeps the value of the dollar high, which keeps the imports coming, etc etc.

When the terms on these loans come due, they are usually paid for with the next round of money coming in. Essentially the US has been surviving for decades on a never ending series of loans. And that is fine, as long as the rest of the world wants US dollars.

But if other countries start trading in euros instead of US dollars (which will happen if it keeps falling) then the US economy is done. The flow of "free" money into the US from investors like Japan and China will stop. Instead of paying these loans using new loans, what will happen when the supply of new money dries up?

This is essentially what happened to Argentina 8 years ago, and it had to start borrowing more money to pay old loans and society basically collapsed.

If OPEC switches to the euro then it will be twice as bad, because oil is the one import that america truly can't do without.

I think the management of this country has been very poor, and not just over the last 8 years either. Instead of reducing debt and dependence on imported oil, america has been increasing debt and using the money to finance military operations to secure that oil flow, a short term solution at best. You can't get voted in if the voters can't afford their retarded sized SUVs and monster trucks!

I know it sounds gloomy, but don't worry! I keep the cost of a one way airfare out of here in my bank account, just in case ;)

I didn't say print more money, I said make more money. I don't think things are as gloom and doom as everyone says. America is a very dynamic country with a much larger and more innovative economy than a country like Argentina. I wouldn't disagree that we are going backwards right now but we will pull out of it. It's likely that we will become a leader in alternative energy and it will provide the next big boom to our economy. Countries like China and India may be growing rapidly but they are still largely social disasters and economically backwards. The global economy depends on the US. I'm not worried about it yet.

wrxkidid 2008-06-26 11:08 PM

Once people actually start using euros instead of dollars is when i will be worried. ass long as the GDP is in the black we are doing just fine.

JonnydaJibba 2008-06-27 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Danger (Post 120240)
Have you ever stopped to think that this is what "they" want you to believe. They create these movies that depict humanity being over run by machines, so that the ignorant masses (you) won't even try. I'm not talking about robots or a number of collective conscious machines, I'm talking about a number of computers operating independently of each other giving us advice that would be up to us to fallow, or not.

That wasn't what I got from your first statement. Come on Bob, you know me better than that. I'm not one of "the masses" and neither are you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JC (Post 120243)
I didn't say print more money, I said make more money. I don't think things are as gloom and doom as everyone says. America is a very dynamic country with a much larger and more innovative economy than a country like Argentina. I wouldn't disagree that we are going backwards right now but we will pull out of it. It's likely that we will become a leader in alternative energy and it will provide the next big boom to our economy. Countries like China and India may be growing rapidly but they are still largely social disasters and economically backwards. The global economy depends on the US. I'm not worried about it yet.

I agree with you JC, but why hasn't alternative energy caught on yet? It seems like a lot of people believe we don't need it yet and we just need to drill for more oil. I'm sure that would help now but can't we push forward alternative energy at the same time? Maybe it's a slow development process. Does it have anything to do with "big oil keeping alternatives down" or is that just a bunch of hooey?

sperry 2008-06-27 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wrxkidid (Post 120245)
Once people actually start using euros instead of dollars is when i will be worried. ass long as the GDP is in the black we are doing just fine.

How can you have a negative GDP? How do you produce less than zero?

And we've been running a trade deficit since the 70's, if that's what you meant.

wrxkidid 2008-06-27 10:10 AM

I don't think I have the education to keep up in this thred. Damn engineers.

Dean 2008-06-27 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sperry (Post 120251)
How can you have a negative GDP? How do you produce less than zero?

And we've been running a trade deficit since the 70's, if that's what you meant.

Year over year GDP change can be negative. Positive year over year is growth, negative is recession.

sperry 2008-06-27 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dean (Post 120264)
Year over year GDP change can be negative. Positive year over year is growth, negative is recession.

How can you have a negative GDP? How do you produce less than zero?

Dean 2008-06-27 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sperry (Post 120265)
How can you have a negative GDP? How do you produce less than zero?

They are referring to year to year or Quarter to Quarter change. If GDP was $100 last period and $99 this period, that is a negative 1% (period1-period2)/period1 change in GDP. 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative Q to Q change = recession. (I think it is Q to Q not Y to Y...)

sperry 2008-06-27 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dean (Post 120266)
They are referring to year to year or Quarter to Quarter change. If GDP was $100 last period and $99 this period, that is a negative 1% (period1-period2)/period1 change in GDP. 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative Q to Q change = recession. (I think it is Q to Q not Y to Y...)

How can you have a negative GDP? How do you produce less than zero?

JonnydaJibba 2008-06-27 12:17 PM

Wouldn't that make the GDP in Deans example 99% from last quarter? It's a decrease in the GDP but the GDP itself is not negative, correct?

Now you won't have do CTRL C 4 more times Scott, unless I too am an idiot.

Nick Koan 2008-06-27 12:18 PM

That's how I'm reading it Jon.

The GDP delta between periods can be negative. By definition, the GDP itself cannot be negative because that makes no sense.

Kevin M 2008-06-27 12:18 PM

Scott is pointing out that you can have positive or negative growth but GDP itself cannot be less than zero.

Edit: So is Nick.

ScottyS 2008-06-27 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sperry (Post 120269)
How can you have a negative GDP? How do you produce less than zero?

That happens in UNR administrative offices on a daily basis.

sperry 2008-06-27 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottyS (Post 120276)
That happens in UNR administrative offices on a daily basis.

Apparently it happens at IGT too. Stock was down 8.6% today. :mad:

MikeK 2008-06-27 06:10 PM

If you inject hydrogen into your economy's intake, GDP goes up 82%

wrxkidid 2008-06-27 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeK (Post 120285)
If you inject hydrogen into your economy's intake, GDP goes up 82%

And solves the whole oil issue since hydrogen is a green fuel. Why havent we been doing this over the past couple of years?!?!?!?!


the economy sucks yes, but look at it this way atleast we are not in a full out depression/recession.

Kevin M 2008-06-27 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wrxkidid (Post 120288)
And solves the whole oil issue since hydrogen is a green fuel. Why havent we been doing this over the past couple of years?!?!?!?!


the economy sucks yes, but look at it this way atleast we are not in a full out depression/recession.

Hydrogen is only "green" if the electricity used to generate it doesn't come from fossil fuel.

Double Phister 2008-06-28 07:32 AM

Nuclear power now!

Dean 2008-06-30 06:55 AM

Solar, Wind & Nukes and a Tesla Roadster in every garage!!! F the Saudis.

AtomicLabMonkey 2008-07-04 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dean (Post 120369)
a Tesla Roadster in every garage!!!

If you're just giving them away I'll take two, plzkthx.

Dean 2008-07-04 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtomicLabMonkey (Post 120710)
If you're just giving them away I'll take two, plzkthx.

They were supposed to announce another more mainstream car this week, but for some reason the announcement was delayed, or I can't find anything on it on their site.

Wait, found something... Linky $65K 5 passenger sedan... No Pictures :(

Libila 2008-07-04 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonnydaJibba (Post 120249)
I agree with you JC, but why hasn't alternative energy caught on yet? It seems like a lot of people believe we don't need it yet and we just need to drill for more oil. I'm sure that would help now but can't we push forward alternative energy at the same time? Maybe it's a slow development process. Does it have anything to do with "big oil keeping alternatives down" or is that just a bunch of hooey?

The "push" takes time but each alternative energy source has a downfall, and people want a solution, not a compromise.

Supposedly America's corn ethanol is hurting our food market and it takes as much energy to produce as we'd save.

Batteries for electric cars aren't ready and the production is quite dirty.

If only we had the foresight like Brazil...

cody 2008-07-07 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Libila (Post 120715)
The "push" takes time but each alternative energy source has a downfall, and people want a solution, not a compromise.

Supposedly America's corn ethanol is hurting our food market and it takes as much energy to produce as we'd save.

Batteries for electric cars aren't ready and the production is quite dirty.

If only we had the foresight like Brazil...

The statistic I heard recently (on a Naked Science episode) is that it takes the equivilent of one gallon of corn ethanol (in fuel) to produce 2 gallons.

Edit: Whereas in another country (was it Brazil?) it takes 1 gallon of sugar cane ethanol (in fuel) to make 8 gallons of sugar cane ethanol...sugar cane is a much more efficient ethanol crop.

sperry 2008-07-07 09:41 AM

Too bad the only state in the Union that can grow sugar cane is Hawaii.

Maybe we should modernize our policy towards Cuba and turn them into a #1 trading partner for fuel cane?

AtomicLabMonkey 2008-07-08 05:14 AM

They grow cane down south in Louisiana & Florida too, more than in Hawaii actually. And FYI Brazil was able to shift to large scale ethanol consumption in the 1970's relatively quickly because their government was a military dictatorship at the time, which rolled out mandates as well as large subsidies for production.

sperry 2008-07-08 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtomicLabMonkey (Post 120847)
They grow cane down south in Louisiana & Florida too, more than in Hawaii actually. And FYI Brazil was able to shift to large scale ethanol consumption in the 1970's relatively quickly because their government was a military dictatorship at the time, which rolled out mandates as well as large subsidies for production.

I was under the impression that only Hawaii had the right year-round climate needed for sugar cane. :?: And that we have retarded high import tariffs on sugar in order to keep the high price on sugar from Hawaii lower than what would be cheaper foreign sugar.

Libila 2008-07-12 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sperry (Post 120854)
I was under the impression that only Hawaii had the right year-round climate needed for sugar cane. :?: And that we have retarded high import tariffs on sugar in order to keep the high price on sugar from Hawaii lower than what would be cheaper foreign sugar.

That's what I thought too, but I don't know...

Kunikos 2008-07-14 12:15 PM

Obviously the answer is we need more creative inventions to spur world-wide consumption like what created the Oreo pizza.

Double Phister 2008-07-15 07:14 PM

Fusion!!
http://www.kqed.org/quest/television/view/842


































well..... maybe someday.

sperry 2008-09-23 09:20 AM

Welp... IGT stock is officially *lower* today than it was 7 years ago when I started working here.

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=IGT

With the lay-offs coming, it's nice to know that if I get canned my options are worthless and my 401k is useless!

Hurray for the coming Depression 2.0! :unamused:

Nick Koan 2008-09-23 09:28 AM

Hooray bailouts!

AtomicLabMonkey 2008-09-23 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sperry (Post 123423)
Hurray for the coming Depression 2.0! :unamused:

What are you talking about Scott, "The fundamentals of our economy are strong!". :rolleyes:

sybir 2008-09-23 10:13 AM

Sorry, buddy :(

MikeK 2008-09-23 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sybir (Post 123433)
Sorry, buddy :(

Yeah, sorry to hear that, Scott

sperry 2008-09-23 11:04 AM

What are you guys apologizing for? I sold my original batch of options at $46/share back in Jan to buy my house. The rest of my options have been worthless ever since the stock dropped below around $38, which was months ago.

I'm just pointing out the milestone of IGT's 60% drop in value as an indicator that we're all fucked because the economy finally turned the corner towards impending doom. I can't say I'm all that surprised... the writing has been on the wall since the 80's. You can't create a debt-based economy that must grow geometrically at 3% each year and expect it to last forever. And you especially can't do it with less and less taxes and deregulation of industry, a la "trickle down economics". Feel free to blame Regan, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr.

MikeK 2008-09-23 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sperry (Post 123438)
You can't create a debt-based economy that must grow geometrically at 3% each year and expect it to last forever.

http://historylink101.net/images/khufu-pyramid.jpg

sperry 2008-09-23 12:56 PM

http://media.ebaumsworld.com/picture...a974_thumb.jpg

zpeed 2008-09-24 11:29 AM

I've been layoff too. I work with the company for 10 years and they said "Sorry we don't need your service anymore".

cody 2008-09-24 11:41 AM

Ouch. Are you totally screwed, Nat?

Nick Koan 2008-09-24 12:05 PM

Ouch :( Sorry to hear it Nat.

sperry 2008-09-24 12:33 PM

Man, that sucks Nat. :(

Where did you work?

AtomicLabMonkey 2008-09-25 09:49 AM

There's plenty of tech companies out here in Cackalack still hiring, for all you software people.

;)

sperry 2008-09-25 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AtomicLabMonkey (Post 123504)
There's plenty of tech companies out here in Cackalack still hiring, for all you software people.

;)

Actually, Lisa was watching some home show and said "we should move to Cary, NC! The houses there are awesome!" She was joking because she thought I'd never consider NC... but I was like, "um... you mean the town Austin lives in? Yeah, we could move there."

The only problem is selling my house here that we just friggen purchased. :unamused: But if I get canned at IGT, moving is certainly on the table... I'm just going to take a huge bath on this house as all the laid-off IGT people try to sell.

sperry 2008-09-25 10:36 AM

Also, I just wrote our Senator:

Quote:

Dear Senator Reid,

With nationwide economic hard times on the horizon, I urge you to carefully act with regards to any Congressional bailout plan.

First, I'd like to remind you that the people pleading for Congressional help are the same people that for years have complained that Congressional regulation was stifling their industry. But now after years of risky behavior, when the margin call comes, they would like to throw away the rules of an open and unregulated economy that they fought for and ask for billions of taxpayer's money to cover their failure. It's unfair for the banking industry to reap the rewards for years while the US taxpayers take all the risk. Any bailout plan must be a loan, and not a hand-out. Any bailout plan must be an investment for the taxpayers, and not an expense.

Second, a reminder that in an open economy, bubbles and bursts are a natural part of the cycle. The reason the housing market burst is because there were too many houses built, followed by poor lending practices used to try to artificially increase the housing demand to match the over supply of homes. This action simply delayed the crash and made it a sharper and harder fall. Continuing to prop up this market with $700B in taxpayer money only perpetuates an unsustainable situation. To put it bluntly, housing prices need to crash; homes are overvalued. I would much rather take the hit quickly than to drag out the crash over the next 20 years.

Third, there is a very good chance that the folks like Bernanke and Paulson that are asking for government help may not be doing so in the best interest of America at large. Sure, a bailout will certainly help their industry, and I'm sure from their perspective that's tantamount to "all of America", after all it's all their personal friends and colleagues that are directly effected by this situation. But in the long run, for the majority of Americans, might it not be better to cut our losses and let a failed system sink? If it were up to me, the last people I'd be listening to about how to fix the problem are the people that got us into this problem. People who just weeks ago were touting how confident they were in the system. There are plenty of economists that warned of the disaster potential inherent in the US banking system. How about giving them the chance to build a new system? A system that reduces risk by capping the risk-taker's income, thus promoting more responsible behavior without directing regulating the market.

Fourth, spending $700B to soften the blow of an economic collapse does not necessarily ensure future growth for America. If hard times call for sacrifices, I have no problem with that. Spend $700B of my money, but make sure it's not just to react to a problem, make sure it's used proactively to provide the seeds for future growth. Spend $700B on job creation programs, on alternative energy research. Use that money not to buy up bad loans, but to buy houses from people that can't afford their mortgages, then rent the house back to them at a price they can afford. Let the taxpayers soften the blow on the taxpayers, not give a free pass to the industry that got us in this mess. Let the taxpayer's money create new jobs for taxpayers, not save the jobs of people that paid themselves billions in bonuses over the last decade.

On a more personal note, I'm a Software Engineer working at one of the largest employers in Reno, NV. In the 7 years I've lived and worked in Nevada, I've never really had a hard time making ends meet. I work hard, make a decent living, and haven't really had to pinch pennies since I got out of college. However, with this economic collapse, there is a good chance I will lose my job, as layoffs have already been announced. I will likely not be able to find work in Reno, as the job market will be full of my colleagues all looking for similar work. I will not be able to afford the house I purchased last February, and thus I will add to the downward spiral. I will go from being a successful middle-class American that could responsibly afford his lifestyle to someone that is "part of the problem". And to add insult to injury, I will be writing a nice big check to the government come next April to pay my taxes that will be spent to prop up the folks that own the loan I'll have to default on, rather than keeping the money in my pocket which would allow me to actually continue to pay for my house. If my money has to go towards a program to help the economy, I'd much rather pay towards a program that creates a wind-farm in Washoe Valley where I can get a job writing communication software for windmills, for example.

In summary, our economy is in for hard times and middle-class America is in for a hard ride, regardless of any banking industry bailout. Please ensure that if you're going to spend billions of taxpayer's money, it's not going to be used to prop-up and prolong a failed system, but that it's going to be spent creating future opportunities for economic success. Please say no to a long depression, and let the failed banking industry fail. Sure it will hurt, but it's akin to pulling the bandage off in one quick tug. Invest instead in the future of our economy by creating new jobs with which America can lead the world in exportable clean energy technology.

Sincerely,

Scott Perry
Reno, NV
The thought of a long grueling depression created by trying to bailout an industry that ignored its inherent risk and now wants the taxpayers to foot the cost of their failure because "they're too big and important to fail" has got my hackles up. :unamused:

AtomicLabMonkey 2008-09-25 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sperry (Post 123505)
Actually, Lisa was watching some home show and said "we should move to Cary, NC! The houses there are awesome!" She was joking because she thought I'd never consider NC... but I was like, "um... you mean the town Austin lives in? Yeah, we could move there."

The only problem is selling my house here that we just friggen purchased. :unamused: But if I get canned at IGT, moving is certainly on the table... I'm just going to take a huge bath on this house as all the laid-off IGT people try to sell.

:lol: What a coincidence. If you guys had to move, at least it would be less expensive out here to get another house.

Nick Koan 2008-09-25 11:36 AM

Scott,

I don't think we're lucky enough to get canned from IGT.

cody 2008-09-25 11:41 AM

Nice letter, Scott. It certainly makes sense to me, but I don't know as much as I should about the details of the proposed bailout.

sperry 2008-09-25 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cody (Post 123511)
Nice letter, Scott. It certainly makes sense to me, but I don't know as much as I should about the details of the proposed bailout.

The most important point IMO is that the guys saying "We need this, and we need it now! Congress, you must do this immediately!" are the same guys that just weeks ago were telling everyone that everything is okay. :roll: These are the guys that got us into this mess, why should we trust them to get us out of it? They should all be fired, and all the CEOs of the banking industry leader that paid themselves like $40B in bonuses last year should be sued by the US Gov't for extortion.

The bailout plan is basically a means to prop-up the failing banks to keep them from going out of business. The problem is that they deserve to go out of business. And I don't mean that in a "they suck" or a "greedy rich people should fail" sort of way, but in a "in a free market economy, sometimes risky behavior ends poorly" sort of way. No matter what happens, middle and lower class Americans are going to get boned, while the rich are going to be slightly richer. So why spend billions of taypayer dollars on a bail-out plan that isn't going to have an real tangible benefit on fixing what's wrong w/ the system? All we're doing is pumping money into a broken industry to make its failure take longer.

This bailout is kinda like me continuing to fix my broken racecar instead of just taking the hit, selling it and buying an STi. :lol: :unamused: :(

knucklesplitter 2008-09-25 01:19 PM

I noticed IGT is putting in a really nice fancy sign at the road entrance to their satellite building next door. They've had contractors on it all week to get it installed and power out to it. Had to cut up the parking lot I think. There was this huge truck with a built in trencher blocking my way into work this morning. Not to rub salt into the layoff wound or anything, but...

sperry 2008-09-25 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knucklesplitter (Post 123519)
I noticed IGT is putting in a really nice fancy sign at the road entrance to their satellite building next door. They've had contractors on it all week to get it installed and power out to it. Had to cut up the parking lot I think. There was this huge truck with a built in trencher blocking my way into work this morning. Not to rub salt into the layoff wound or anything, but...

Yeah, that's our new nifty integration lab where outside customers can bring their equipment to install it in our "virtual casino" to test for compatibility with the new back-end server system we're making.

Basically, we're still spending texas-money on server-based gaming, because we already stacked all our eggs in that basket. Lucky for me, that's what I'm working on. Unlucky for me, IGT really needs lots of new and fun slot machines if it wants to dig itself out of the slump, not a fancy new server... which means if/when they figure that out, I'm in real trouble.


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