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Dean · 2008-10-09, 04:05 PM

The market bottom will be well before the economy does. Possibly by as much as 6 months. For the most part, it is a forward looking indicator when it is not reacting.

There is an absolute ton of cash on the sidelines waiting for a sign to move back in...

If the fed starts clearing trades which eliminates the counter party risk, that may well be it.

Is is not likely to be a "V" bottom, though there may well be a a 1000+ point 1 or more day rally near the bottom. It is far more likely to be a "U" where confidence slowly builds and money comes in, but those who are in early take profits on the way up.

If it doesn't happen in the next 2 weeks, maybe 30 days, it may not happen for 12 months as confidence will be at zero and will likely stay there for some time no matter what actions are taken.

I know that isn't an answer, but if I knew the answer, I would be making a fortune and not looking for a job...

2008-10-09, 04:05 PM	#143
Dean Señor Cheap Bastarde Real Name: Dean Join Date: May 2003 Location: $99 Tire Store Posts: 9,294 Car: $.04 STI Class: Fast,Cheap & Reliable=STI Deal, did somebody say Deal? Oh, Dean, yeah that's me.	The market bottom will be well before the economy does. Possibly by as much as 6 months. For the most part, it is a forward looking indicator when it is not reacting. There is an absolute ton of cash on the sidelines waiting for a sign to move back in... If the fed starts clearing trades which eliminates the counter party risk, that may well be it. Is is not likely to be a "V" bottom, though there may well be a a 1000+ point 1 or more day rally near the bottom. It is far more likely to be a "U" where confidence slowly builds and money comes in, but those who are in early take profits on the way up. If it doesn't happen in the next 2 weeks, maybe 30 days, it may not happen for 12 months as confidence will be at zero and will likely stay there for some time no matter what actions are taken. I know that isn't an answer, but if I knew the answer, I would be making a fortune and not looking for a job... __________________ I am a Commodore PET --- Now get off my lawn you kids...